Taking Economic Policy Uncertainty Seriously EPU has risen from a 2016-2024 level of 136 to a 2025 level of 430. Ferrara and Geurin (2018) find that a 90 pt increase results in a bit less than 2% decline in employment at the one year horizon. Assuming linearity in the impacts, this means that at a one year horizon, employment might […]
https://econbrowser.com/archiv....es/2025/05/taking-ec

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Nowcasted Equipment Investment Decelerates Why? Q2 equipment investment as implied by GDPNow of 5/30. Figure 1: Caldara et al. Trade Policy Uncertainty index (blue, left scale), and nonresidential equipment investment (black, right log scale), and implied by GDPNow of 5/30 (gray square), both in bn.Ch.2017$ SAAR. Source: Iacoviello TPU, BEA 2025Q1 second release, and Atlanta Fed. Note the spike […]
https://econbrowser.com/archiv....es/2025/05/nowcasted

Trump tracker: the latest data on US tariffs, trade and economy As the president launches a trade war, follow the latest on tariffs and executive orders
https://www.ft.com/content/2c4....73393-35fb-479d-8bba

Trump says he will double steel and aluminium tariffs to 50% US president escalates global trade war two days after a court ruled against the legality of his levies
https://www.ft.com/content/b85....586fe-5886-4c90-bc29