The Twin Deficits – One Out of Two IS Bad From time to time on this blog, I circle back to the question of the balance of deficits. In my mind, as our economy goes through whatever the “Trump Transition” is, the biggest risk to the bond markets is not from some fear about whether the Treasury will default or whether the US dollar will […]
https://inflationguy.blog/2025..../06/25/the-twin-defi

The Road to Crypto Conversion While this isn’t exactly the conversion of Saul on the road to Damascus, I came to a realization recently that subtly changes the way I look at the potential for large cryptocurrencies, such as Bitcoin. Historically, my attitude has been dismissive about the value of bitcoin itself. While I recognize the amazing reach of blockchain […]
https://inflationguy.blog/2025..../06/17/the-road-to-c

Inflation Guy’s CPI Summary (May 2025) Well, this was an odd one to sort out. Going into the CPI announcement this morning, the economist consensus was for +0.17% (seasonally adjusted) on headline CPI m/m and +0.28% on core. Market changes this month have been very contained, partly because of the usual summer doldrums kicking in and partly (most likely) because of […]
https://inflationguy.blog/2025..../06/11/inflation-guy

Why a 4.5% Nominal Rate is Roughly Equilibrium…Hmmm, Sounds Familiar… I was planning to write today about why a 4.5%-5.0% nominal Treasury rate is not only not the end of the world, but actually sort of normal. Naturally, the reason I am even thinking about the topic is because of all of the apparent alarm because the current long bond recent peeked above 5% and […]
https://inflationguy.blog/2025..../05/28/why-a-4-5-nom

Inflation Guy’s CPI Summary (April 2025) Before the CPI analysis, I always try to give some context for where we are in the ‘story’ about the evolution of inflation right now. It’s really difficult to do that, though, because of all of the massive policy changes that are happening – and often in opposite directions with respect to the effect on […]
https://inflationguy.blog/2025..../05/13/inflation-guy