Rare events are really common In a recent Econlog post, I pointed out that the “inverted yield curve” predictor of recessions had failed this time around. (Recessions are supposed to occur within a year of the inversion.) Here I’ll discuss one reason why this sort of indicator is less useful than it might seem at first glance. This tweet caught […]
https://www.themoneyillusion.c....om/rare-events-are-r