Early Voting Trends: Surge or Return to Normal? Charles Stewart III, MIT [Note: This posting was written on the eve of Election Day, based on statistics reported Monday morning.] We’ve come to the end of the time in the election cycle when the politically engaged, tired of obsessively going to FiveThirtyEight or the Silver Bulletin, look to other tea leaves. A few of […]
https://electionupdates.caltec....h.edu/2024/11/05/ear

Blue Shift, Red Shift? Charles Stewart III, MIT The 2020 election taught America what most political pros already knew: votes aren’t counted immediately, and there are partisan patterns in how election results unfold. America also learned new terms for these partisan patterns: the blue shift (if you’re academically oriented) and the red mirage (if you read Axios). As Election […]
https://electionupdates.caltec....h.edu/2024/10/31/blu

Looking back to 2020 for a Guide to How Fast the Votes Will Be Reported in 2024 Charles Stewart, MIT As we approach Election Day, I’ve been getting lots of questions about what to expect as the election results are reported. Will we be seeing the same patterns as in 2020? Will Pennsylvania take forever to count its votes because of limitations prohibitions on pre-processing? Will Arizona slow-walk from a comfortable Democratic […]
https://electionupdates.caltec....h.edu/2024/10/30/loo

Redistricting in Virginia goes to special masters Despite negative news coverage of redistricting, there’s a lot of hope (see my recent Twitter thread), especially compared with a decade ago. In particular, Virginia is looking up. Although the commission deadlocked, the law now assigns the job to the Virginia state Supreme Court. The Court has appointed two Special Masters, Bernard Grofman and Sean […]
https://election.princeton.edu..../2021/11/22/redistri

We need your help in North Carolina This week, the Princeton Gerrymandering Project launched our Redistricting Report Card, in partnership with RepresentUS. This project scores proposed redistricting maps on their geographic features, competitiveness, and partisan fairness, while also providing an in-depth view of the estimated partisanship and minority composition of each district in the plan.  Our tool runs on a robust algorithm […]
https://election.princeton.edu..../2021/08/11/we-need-