Rare events are really common In a recent Econlog post, I pointed out that the “inverted yield curve” predictor of recessions had failed this time around. (Recessions are supposed to occur within a year of the inversion.) Here I’ll discuss one reason why this sort of indicator is less useful than it might seem at first glance. This tweet caught […]
https://www.themoneyillusion.c....om/rare-events-are-r

A Frank appraisal of my blog Tyler Cowen directed me to the blogger Daniel Frank, who has a post discussing my non-monetary blogging. I always find it gratifying when someone indicates that they find something of value in these non-monetary posts. I worry they are merely a self-indulgence, taking advantage of the fact that I have a captive audience from my […]
https://www.themoneyillusion.c....om/a-frank-appraisal

Donald and Hunter It’s amazing how similar these two cases are. Both involve prosecutors going after people who committed minor technical violations, with the full force of the law. It’s likely that neither case would have been brought if the individuals had not been famous. There is one big difference however. One guy is the top Republican, and […]
https://www.themoneyillusion.c....om/donald-and-hunter

Melancholia During my recent trip to the Bay Area, I met lots of people who are involved in the field of AI. My general impression is that this region has more smart people than anywhere else, at least per capita. And not just fairly smart, I’m talking about extremely high IQ individuals. I don’t claim to […]
https://www.themoneyillusion.com/melancholia-2/

Read it and weep 1. Bad monetary policy produces inflation and/or recessions. But the greatest cost of bad monetary policy is that it leads to bad policies in other areas, including wasteful fiscal stimulus, protectionism, bank bailouts and price controls. In China, an overly restrictive monetary policy has led the government into a project involving the purchase of large […]
https://www.themoneyillusion.com/read-it-and-weep/